My 2011 in Fantasy Baseball: Weeks 6 & 7; plus, an update

Posting has been sporadic recently due to my dissertation being in full swing and various personal and family matters, some good (hooray impending wedding!) some less good (not for public consumption). I do have a few posts I'm working on, some of which I hinted at in my last post, but the time available to work on them has decreased in both amount and regularity. At this point, I fear I'll only be able to do a few posts a month, but I'll try and keep these updates weekly. Unfortunately, I was out of town and unavailable to blog last week.

Similarly, instead of going through the usual rigamarole, I'll be condensing this series of posts; the truncation will be at least for the next few posts. Anyway, here we go....

Waveland & Clark (H2H Points)

Record: 3-3 (3rd, 1 GB)

Update: The season hasn't been going as well as planned, in part due to injuries and in part because I'm not too good at managing weekly lineups yet. I swung a major trade recently, giving up Stephen Drew (whose constant day-to-day status was irritating) and Marcum for Hanley Ramirez and Kyle Lohse. I hate Lohse. But Han-Ram was worth the trade, and maybe Lohse is productive. In fact, I've overhauled my staff entirely. Three weeks ago, it was Weaver/Chacin/Liriano/T Hudson/Marcum/Zambrano/Wade Davis/Pineda; now Marcum, Davis and Liriano are out while Lohse, Ian Kennedy, and Homer Bailey are in and I'm contemplating a roster move that will allow me to get Jonathan Sanchez off waivers (short version: I don't want to drop Lohse just yet, but I'm also reluctant to drop Matt Wieters, by far the best backup catcher available).

Cubbie Blues (5x5 Roto)

Standings: 1st place, 88/100 pts

Update: I keep flirting with 90+ points for short periods of time, but my batting average always brings me down. I picked up Hosmer, Logan Morrison and Matt Joyce and swung a trade of Cordero/J. Sanchez/Fuld for Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. I have at least 8.5 points out of ten in every category except average; moreover, average is the only category where I couldn't theoretically be in first place next week if I had a good week. It's a fairly inactive league, which blunts the thrill of domination, but I'll still take it.

Cubs Expatriot (H2H Categories)

Standings: 44-11-5, 1st place

Update: Here's another league where I'm dominating. It took me until mid-May to have double-digit category losses. No notable moves, aside from the standard streaming pitchers and occasional roster replacements (Joyce and Hosmer, mainly). I keep losing at least one of (and usually both) ERA/WHIP for some reason, given that my pitching is quite good. Brandon Morrow won't help those categories, but Brett Anderson/Jered Weaver/King Felix/Pineda/Marcum should be enough, though lately it hasn't been. I have little incentive to fix what isn't broken, which is probably why I'm still holding onto Juan Pierre and his .242 batting average. I'd do just as well to pick up Rajai Davis.

Cubbie Blues (7x7 roto)

Standings: 5th place, 76/140 points

Update: This certainly represents my highest standing at the end of a day so far this season, if not my best point total. After being mired at the bottom of the standings, I've embarked upon a major roster overhaul. The idea is to put myself in a position where I have a lot of assets, regardless of need/balance. If I'm competitive, then great. Otherwise, I use them to get keepers for next year. Since there's no value (all keepers cost the same regardless of anything), this means making godfather offers (like "I give you Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler and Matt Cain for Hanley Ramirez). But until I'm definitely out of it, I'm waiting on those. Of the two big moves, the first was trading Marcum, Gaby Sanchez, Brandon Phillips and Anibal Sanchez for Lincecum, Brett Anderson and Uggla. The second was trading Mitch Moreland straight-up for Ian Kinsler.

Now here's what I mean about "regardless of need/balance." My first baseman is Matt LaPorta. In two weeks, I traded Billy Butler, Gaby Sanchez, and Mitch Moreland- three productive first basemen. I have Kinsler, Aviles, and Uggla all 2B eligible. Kinsler was a complete non-need; the occasional power is nice but I didn't really need the average or speed he provided. But Kinsler is more likely to be a tradeable asset than Moreland; people may want to keep Kinsler and he has higher name value (if not actual value).

I can only keep five players, at the cost of my first available pick for each. My major assets are Reyes, Bautista, McCann, Uggla, Kinsler, Kemp, Hamilton, and Lincecum- eight potential keepers, depending on personal preferences. If I can only keep five, then I can use these players and lesser lights in trades to overwhelm a contender for a player. For example, the current 2nd place team has needs in WHIP, steals, and saves. If I offer him Kinsler, Reyes and Paplebon for Hanley, that's a good deal for him (addresses needs) and for me (I get a major keeper). It's not "fair," since I'm giving up so much value for one player, but it leaves me in better shape for next year if it gets to that point.

I don't know if or when it will get to that point- my weakness is pitching across the board, but a staff anchored by Lincecum, Chacin, Brett Anderson, and Cain (with Way-Rod and Colby Lewis to boot) should be more competitive than dead-last for pitching stats.

My 2011 in Fantasy Baseball: Week 5

I'm currently working on a mega-post on assessing trade value in various leagues, with a focus on swapping pitchers with hitters. I'm also in the middle of another mega-post on first-month analysis. It's a ton of work, but they'll hopefully both go up this week. In the meantime...

Bernie's Bomber's (H2H points)

Standings: 2-2, T-2nd in Cheese

Last Matchup: W, 357-236

MVP of the Matchup: Jered Weaver (9.0 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 10K, W, CG, SO, 41 pts) and Robinson Cano (8/24, 4 HR, 7 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, SB, 41 pts)

Goat of the Matchup: No real goats this week, though Tim Hudson was my low scorer (9 pts)

The Skinny: Not much doing this past week. I just stayed the course and managed to win pretty handily. A couple of my two-starts didn't pan out due to having one of those starts pushed back (Wade Davis, Jered Weaver) so those guys are just two-starters this week instead.

Looking Ahead: I get Victor Martinez and Logan Morrison back this week, but not in enough time to put them in my lineup. I won't have to drop anyone because they're sitting on my bench, so I may not drop Wieters and instead hang onto him as a trade chip. If he becomes a top-10 catcher this year, I can turn him into something more valuable.

My next matchup gives me the opportunity to take over first place. It doesn't look out of the question, barring bad luck. Just to help, I dropped the platoon-bound Seth Smith for Coco Crisp, and put him in the lineup instead of Span (seven games to five).

Cubbie Blues (5x5 Roto)

Standings: 1st place, 81/100 points

Weekly Line: 82/317 (.259 Avg), 45 R, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 6 SB; 54.2 IP, 45 H, 24 BB, 22 ER, 59 K, 2 W, 9 Sv, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP.

MVP of the Week: Jay Bruce (6/24, 6 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB) in spite of the average.

Goat of the Week: Jose Tabata (1/18, R, RBI)

The Skinny: My stats are finally coming on, though my rates didn't improve as much as I would have hoped. I did rise quite a bit in the standings this week, gaining 7 points since last Monday and 17.5 points in the last half-month. My rate stats seem to see-saw quite a bit between great and average, and this was an average week.

Looking Ahead: My grasp on 1st place is a little tenuous. I may be top-half in all categories, but I only lead two (one outright, one tied) and in many cases I could be overtaken. I'm up two in runs, five in RBI, two in Ks, and one in wins. In short, the people behind me are closer to me than I am to the people ahead of me. I could easily lose ten points with a terrible week, and I'll quite likely lose one or two next week. That's not great against a 3.5 point lead. This isn't an active league- only three teams make regular transactions and there have been none in the past week. That's dangerous, because it means that (for the most part) I need to work the waiver wire well, but drops will get scooped up by the few people who pay attention. Either almost everyone needs to be active, or no one needs to be active. This in-between is hard.

Cubs Expatriot (H2H categories)

Standings: 32-6-2, 1st in East

Last Matchup: 8-2-0, 38/9/39/7/.2171 vs. 31/6/32/3/.2759; 82/8/4/4.331/1.290 vs 54/3/0/3.582/1.301

MVP of the Matchup: BJ Upton had the best week (8/23, 6 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB) but a solid outing from a streamed Philip Humber (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 2K) helped me take WHIP at the last second.

Goat of the Matchup: The troika of Brett Anderson, Kyle McClellan, and Liriano (13.2 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 19 ER, 8 K, 12.512 ERA, 2.415 WHIP). That cost me 9-1-0.

The Skinny: I'm done with Liriano in this league. I don't need him. My average took a tumble from last week, with four players hitting above .250 and only two above .300 for the matchup. I am getting good at matchup acquisitions for this league, though. For example, Desmond was out for a few games so I dropped him for Aybar, knowing my SS production doesn't matter too much. I also tend to hold onto pitchers until Thursday, when I start streaming based on matchups. This week it was Liriano for McClellan (ugh), McClellan for Baker, Baker for Humber, then Humber for Floyd. Not too shabby, and though the results weren't great I'd take that stream any day of the week. I ended by dropping Floyd for Ryan Roberts- I prefer not to have too many bench hitters in this league, since the day-to-day lineup moves don't matter as much with who I've got. But with Tabata out for a little but not necessarily on the DL, I needed another OF just to have a full roster. I also dropped Contreras for Farnsworth, deciding that the extra spot is best used on another good reliever. And I never thought I'd say that about Farnsworth after watching him on the Cubs.

Looking Ahead: Weaver is my only two-starter this week. I may have to sacrifice pitching a little this week anyway, though. My opponent is big on hitting (Fielder, Phillips, Martin, A-Rod, Tulo, Choo, Ellsbury, Chris Young) and light on pitching (T Hudson, Cahill, CJ Wilson, E-Jax and Beachy starting, Rivera, Chris Perez, Cordero and Walden closing). He outhits me by four bombs and 8 RBI per matchup, though I have a better average, and more runs/steals. He also has a much better ERA than I do. I basically have to hope that Jackson gets hit, he has a few blown saves, and a cold streak from some hitters (many of whom I have on other teams). This is more likely to be a 5-4-1 week for me than 8-2-0 or 9-0-1. He's in 2nd right behind me in the division, so this is a good opportunity for both of us.

Cubbie Blues (7x7 Roto)

Standings: 74/140 points, 31 back

Last Week: 71/277 (.256 BA), 39 R, 14 2B, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 44 K, 81.1 IP, 86 H, 25 BB, 7 HRA, 60 K, 4 QS, 4 W, 4 Sv, 4.20 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

MVP of the Week: Brandon Phillips (9/24, 5 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 K)

Goat of the Week: Do I really need to tell you it's Liriano?

The Skinny: I finally had enough and dropped Liriano in this league as well. I'm pretty far behind on starts, so I started doing a little streaming with that spot in this league as well. It's not like I don't have the pitching spots. I also had the good fortune to pick up two temporary closers in Madson and Oliver, which will help my numbers some. I also made a trade this week for pitching, giving up Billy Butler, Macier Izturis and Jonny Gomes for Jhoulys Chacin and Alex Rios. It looks like a bad trade on its face, and it does give me pause, but I could give up the average and I needed the pitching pretty badly. Rios is the wildcard here- if he has a good run, then he's a great addition. If he continues to struggle, I'm screwed. Ideally, he heats up in May/early June and I can move him for someone more consistent. In any event, he essentially replaces Jonny Gomes, so it's not like I took a large hit to BA with the swap. I added Mike Aviles in the extra spot.

Looking Ahead: I have just enough hitting to be respectable, especially if I get some power going. The problem is my pitching is hideous. If you look at just my hitting-based points (fifty), I'm in 2nd place. If you look at just my hitting (24 points) I'm pretty far behind, not in last but not by much. The trick is giving away just enough where I can- BA, SB, K, R- to get solid pitching (especially ERA/WHIP) without taking a huge hit I can't afford. Billy Butler was my big chip on that front- .300 hitter, OK for 2B/HR, few Ks, team that runs- and I'm kicking myself that I only got Chacin for him (as much as I like Chacin). This means essentially I have to continue to play the "what can I get for Josh Hamilton" game. I need a good pitcher to move him, especially since this is a keeper league, since his return will help but not necessarily where I need it the most. I keep getting Zobrist/Roberts type offers from the 1st place team, but I need a pitcher in that deal. He has Price/Verlander/Lee/Grienke, any of whom would be good and an upgrade over any of my starters (anchored by Cain, Marcum and now Chacin). He steadfastly refuses, though. Ideally I put together a package of Hamilton/Wandy for Verlander or Grienke/Zobrist, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

Other Leagues

I do have a handful of other leagues I'm in. There's one more 5x5 league that drafted in-season, and I've gone from 6th at the start (seriously, they assigned us stats based on our draft) to 3rd now. I made a mega-trade offer off the bat of A-Gon/Desmond/Gardner/Scherzer/Sanchez for Hanley/CarGo/Sabathia- a reach to be sure, but not so bad. The guy acted like I insulted his wife. But he still needs a ton of hitting and strikeouts/wins, languishing in 8th place. Meanwhile, I'm rocketing up the standings and as soon as my WHIP normalizes I'll be in 1st. I get no small satisfaction out of this, especially since he named his team "Why O Why Am I So Good." Given that only Rajai Davis is his source of steals (I have Desmond and Upton), only Ryan Roberts has 5 homers (I have Miggy, Beltre, and Chris Young), and he has no strikeout-per-inning pitchers (I have Lester, Marcum, Scherzer, Sanchez, and D Hudson), he can be indignant all the way to the cellar. Quality-for-quantity trades are always unappealing, especially to the guy giving up quality, but he needs it. Unless he thinks Darwin Barney is for real, Span/Boesch will run more, and Billingsley/Shields/Pineda/Floyd will give him good seasons instead of good parts of seasons, he really needs a lot of small upgrades at the expense of a few stars.

I'm in a H2H categories league (standard, plus 2B/OPB/QS/HD) where most categories takes a win (i.e. if I go 8-6-0, 4-10-0, and 6-5-3 my record is 2-1 and not 18-21-3). For this league, we got to pick two teams and were assigned ten players from those two teams by the LM. I came in late with only four teams left to take, so I got the Reds and Mariners. This gave me Votto, Figgins, Bruce, Stubbs, Ichiro, Phillips, Cordero, Felix, Arroyo and Wood. I dropped Wood and traded Phillips/Cordero/Rollins (not on the Philly team?) for Longoria/Walker/McClellan. It's a 14 team league, with small active rosters (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/3 OF/Util/SP/5 RP) but a deep bench (10, plus 4 DL). I'm currently tied for 1st in the division at 3-1, and 4th overall based on tie-breakers.

Last, there's another H2H points league. 16 teams and ultra-deep. I took this team over, so it's not great, and I'm having a hard time adjusting to the depth of the league (I mean, Pierzynksi as my catcher?). Interestingly, there's a cap of 8 starts for pitchers and 82 starts for hitters, with penalties for going over. That makes it a pretty tough juggling act, since I can't have every hitter spot active every day (13 active hitters). That's not really possible, of course, but the point remains that I have to have 9 dead spots per week. It's four 4-team divisions, and I'm in 1st in mine with a 3-1 record. That's interesting, since I'm 10th in points for and 15th in points against.