2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Bible: 5x5 Roto Leagues

Alas, back in December I promised to resume the blog. And, as so often happens, life immediately decided to wreak havoc on those plans. Having spent the last 3 months performing work/school/life triage, I am now in a position to resume for at least the next few weeks, and just in time for draft preparation! Today, we are going to tackle the most standard of leagues: the mixed 5x5 rotisserie league. Buckle up, because this is going to be a long post.

First, a word. Everything I write from here on down is going to be based on ESPN's projected stats for each player. You may have different projections, and that's OK. There may be a different site you like, or you may have your own (I recommend a rolling 3-year average if that's the case). But many, if not most, people use ESPN for their fantasy leagues, as I do. So I use their projections. Of course, this also means that my analysis is also only as good as the projections I use; I don't want angry letters because a player failed to live up to ESPN's idea of what they should do this season. Chances are, I'll be just as frustrated as you anyway. But I find the ESPN projections to be quite useable- it certainly helped me a ton last year- and so it will be those projections I use.

The idea behind a roto league- and I'm not sure you need this explained, but indulge me- is to aggregate the best numbers possible in as many of the 10 categories as possible: Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), and Batting Average (BA or Avg) for hitters; Wins (W), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), Saves (Sv), and Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) for pitchers. Insofar as winning your league is concerned, the best thing you can do for any given category is to draft the person who will (or is at least projected to) lead the league in that category. Anyone else you draft is sub-optimal with respect to that goal, and that can be represented by a percent. However, there are positional constraints, and positional expectations. For example, you need at least one first baseman. No first baseman is going to lead the league in steals. As such, low steal totals for a first baseman are not great, but not as bad as a low steal total for an outfielder or middle infielder. So the same SB total for a 1B should be more valuable than an identical total for a middle infielder or outfielder.

To this end, the metric I use is Value Under Maximum, or VUM (though it really should undergo a name change). The formula for VUM for any given statistic is as follows:

VUM= (2*(x-min(l)))/(max(p)+max(l)-(2*min(l)))

where x is the projected value for the stat (Avg, K, SB, etc), min(l) is the MLB minimum projection, max(l) is the maximum MLB projection, and max (p) is the maximum projection for that position. Put another way, I take the projection above minimum performance (say, 0 steals or a .200 BA) as a percent of the maximum league value over the same number:

((x-min(l))/(max(l)-min(l))

do likewise for the projection with respect to the position maximum

((x-min(l))/(max(p)-min(l))

and average the two. All values are between 0 (the absolute worst in all MLB) and 1 (the absolute best). You can do this for every statistic and add them all up, giving you a value between 0 and 5 for all players. You can then rank them by this aggregate value.

This method allows you to compare various types of players- not just pitchers and hitters, but a 20 HR/20 SB shortstop to a 40 HR outfielder. Every little bit of production gets a numeric value, and aggregating them allows you to compare disparate strengths and weaknesses in an objective manner. VUM is also not roster/league dependent. Because it works of maxima and minima, it doesn't matter how many teams are in the league or what the specific roster composition is, as long as the league is 5x5 roto. There are, however, a few caveats.

Caveat #1: As stated above, this value is only as accurate as the projections. Insofar as the projections are off, VUM will not be an accurate way to measure value.

Caveat #2: This measure overvalues relievers. Closers are notoriously hard to predict from one year to the next; this is actually true for relievers in general. VUM does not care about this, and sees winning saves as just as valuable as winning steals (which is true). But it's difficult to predict who will lead the league in saves; it's difficult to even predict who will close for a team in June/July/August. VUM loves Craig Kimbrel, in part because he's projected to lead the league in saves with 100 Ks. If this is true, Kimbrel will indeed be valuable. But VUM loves him as a 2nd round pick. There are two things to note about this. First, saves can be had much later than the 2nd round. Second, no one is going to draft a closer until at least the 6th or 7th round, possibly later. It would be stupid to take Kimbrel at a time when there's no danger of someone else picking him. All VUM is saying is that, if he hits his projections, Kimbrel will return 2nd round value in terms of helping you win your league. I devised this system, and I still wouldn't draft Kimbrel that high; aside from the fact that closers can be had 15 rounds later, there's no telling if he's going to be this year's Soria/Broxton/Franklin/etc. Don't pay for saves.

Caveat #3: VUM is an unfeeling creature. It doesn't take into account what the more likely outcome is (the basis of TMR's wonderful draft manifesto). VUM loves Brett Lawrie as a 5th/6th round pick, and loves him slightly more than Pablo Sandoval. Lawrie is probably more talented than Sandoval, but I still think Sandoval is more likely to hit his projections than Lawrie. If Lawrie gets figured out by pitchers, he'll be less valuable. If not, he'll be as valuable as predicted. There's less variation with Sandoval, and so while Lawrie may have more potential, Sandoval is safer.

Caveat #4: This VUM only works for 5x5 roto. You can add in more stats as you add more categories, but those numbers will be different from the ones below. I'm in a 7x7 league, and VUM for that league ranges between 0 and 7, with different rankings because additional measures are used. VUM as a general idea still works, but these specific numbers will not.

Caveat #5: VUM works best for filling starting positions: 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, C, and P. It works less well for MI/CI spots, and even less well for Utility/Bench spots. That's not to say it's useless- it allows you to compare having a given SS vs. a given OF on your bench, but it's not quite as good as it is for filling the 14 starting positions.

Caveat #6: Not so much a true caveat, but it's worth noting that the same player with the same statistics has different VUM values for different positions if he has multiple eligibility. This is simply because different positions have different baselines. It also means that there is an optimal position to play someone, and the same player can be a bargain or a reach depending on positions. This is less pronounced at the top of the draft- the person immediately behind Miguel Cabrera the 3B is Miguel Cabrera the 1B- and in general isn't a huge factor. But it is something to keep in mind in the middle to late rounds.

With all that out of the way, I'll get into my positional rankings. I'll go top 15 around the infield, top 50 outfielders, top 50 starters, and top 20 relievers. I'll have VUM values next to each name, as well as a brief discussion.

Catcher

1) Mike Napoli (3.14)

2) Carlos Santana (2.81)

3) Joe Mauer (2.67)

4) Brian McCann (2.66)

5) Matt Wieters (2.57)

6) Miguel Montero (2.54)

7) Buster Posey (2.39)

8) Alex Avila (2.27)

9) Yadier Molina (2.23)

10) Kurt Suzuki (2.19)

11) Russell Martin (2.14)

12) JP Arencibia (2.00)

13) Salvador Perez (1.93)

14) Geovany Soto (1.87)

15) Wilson Ramos (1.86)

Mike Napoli is far and away the #1 catcher. Don't worry about the lack of at-bats- it's comparable to Brian McCann, admittedly one of the most well-rested catchers in the league. After that it's Carlos Santana, then Mauer/McCann, and then you might as well wait. Of all the catchers Posey has the most potential to outperform his ranking, but this still assumes a 16 jacks and a .291 batting average. I like Wieters, but he's not objectively better than Miguel Montero. If you're in a 12 or more team league, Salvador Perez (ADP 321) and Russell Martin (ADP 317) have the potential to be great value picks.

First Base

1) Albert Pujols (4.06)

2) Miguel Cabrera (3.75)

3) Joey Votto (3.68)

4) Adrian Gonzales (3.58)

5) Prince Fielder (3.49)

6) Mark Teixeira (3.22)

7) Michael Cuddyer (2.89)

8) Eric Hosmer (2.81)

9) Paul Konerko (2.78)

10) Mike Napoli (2.72)

11) Michael Young (2.67)

12) Lance Berkman (2.65)

13) Michael Morse (2.65)

14) Mark Reynolds (2.58)

15) Carlos Lee (2.47)

First off- you might have Cabrera at 3rd (not unreasonable), Cuddyer in the outfield (though he's slightly more valuable at 1B), Young at 3B, and you almost certainly have Napoli at catcher. So, for reference, the next five are Freddie Freeman, Adam Lind, Carlos Santana (someone you also have at catcher), Paul Goldschmidt, and Gaby Sanchez. In general, if you don't get one of the first six names you're better of waiting until rounds 8-10 or later to draft a first baseman. First base is sufficiently deep that you should let people reach for talent (Hosmer, Freeman, Konerko) and take what comes to you. However, there are some noticeable talent gaps here. The difference between Pujols and Cabrera is almost as large as the difference between Cuddyer and Lee. If you can snag Pujols with your first round pick, do it. It's a huge value. And there's no reason not to take a 1B with one of your first three picks if you can get Tex or better- they all grade out to top-30 picks. And you need a good 1B to buttress your counting stats.

Second Base

1) Robinson Cano (3.68)

2) Ian Kinsler (3.63)

3) Dustin Pedroia (3.62)

4) Brandon Phillips (3.13)

5) Ben Zobrist (3.06)

6) Dan Uggla (2.78)

7) Chase Utley (2.71)

8) Howard Kendrick (2.69)

9) Ryan Roberts (2.66)

10) Rickie Weeks (2.62)

11) Neil Walker (2.57)

12) Jason Kipnis (2.42)

13) Danny Espinosa (2.40)

14) Jemile Weeks (2.37)

15) Dustin Ackley (2.36)

Cano, Kinsler, and Pedroia are pretty tightly clustered, even with Kinsler not getting as many at-bats as the other two. That's what 30 steal/30 homer potential gets you. If you want to drop Kinsler based on injury potential, though, I won't argue with you placing him 3rd. There's also major value/reach potential here. Mock Draft Central has Uggla going 4th among second-sackers (53 overall), Rickie Weeks 7th (77th overall), and Ackley going 10th (134); meanwhile Zobrist (8th 2B/81 overall), Kendrick (9/108) and especially Roberts (15/196) have the potential for great value. Those last three all have positional flexibility too, making them great adds generally. Roberts seems especially puzzling for such a high ranking, especially with the names below him, but in spite of a .260 batting average he's got 15/15 potential with decent run/RBI numbers. Ackley and J Weeks seem to suffer for the offenses around them, and though Ackley has great potential I still wouldn't place him in the top 10.

Third Base

1) Miguel Cabrera (3.85)

2) Jose Bautista (3.71)

3) Evan Longoria (3.50)

4) Hanley Ramirez (3.31)

5) Adrian Beltre (3.19)

6) David Wright (3.10)

7) Brett Lawrie (2.93)

8) Pablo Sandoval (2.84)

9) Michael Young (2.74)

10) Aramis Ramirez (2.72)

11) Kevin Youkilis (2.71)

12) Ryan Zimmerman (2.70)

13) Mark Reynolds (2.63)

14) Ryan Roberts (2.58)

15) Alex Rodriguez (2.56)

Cabrera has slightly more value at 3B (if/when he gets there) than 1B, but it's a toss-up. Hanley Ramirez is a slightly better play at SS, but I guess it's a matter of how you draft if you decide to slide him over after 10 or 20 games. Numbers 9 to 12 are a pretty close cluster- a HR there, a few runs there makes the difference- so I wouldn't worry about who you prefer over whom in that range. Young and his boring stats excepted, it's injury risks that cluster them down there anyway. A-Rod is the big stay-away here. Yes, he's A-Rod. On the other hand, he's projected to get fewer than 500 at-bats, which sounds right, and he's been trading contact for power, which means a low BA. Given that he doesn't steal anymore either, the fact that he's next to a 15/15 Ryan Roberts actually sounds about right. Draft A-Rod at your own risk.

Shortstop

1) Troy Tulowitzki (3.56)

2) Hanley Ramirez (3.36)

3) Jose Reyes (3.11)

4) Jimmy Rollins (2.86)

5) Elvis Andrus (2.69)

6) Starlin Castro (2.68)

7) Alexei Ramirez (2.61)

8) Marco Scutaro (2.54)

9) JJ Hardy (2.50)

10) Derek Jeter (2.45)

11) Asdrubal Cabrera (2.45)

12) Dee Gordon (2.31)

13) Jhonny Peralta (2.31)

14) Erick Aybar (2.24)

15) Emilio Bonifacio (2.19)

Hanley is slightly more valuable at SS than 3B, and given the relative strengths of the positions I'd probably use him at short. In general, though, if you don't get one of the top 4 there's not much difference in numbers five to eleven. It's also worth noting the names not on this list- Ian Desmond, Stephen Drew, Alex Gonzales, Rafael Furcal, and Jed Lowrie. Those are middle infield/bench options at best.

Outfield

1) Ryan Braun (4.08)

2) Matt Kemp (3.96)

3) Jacoby Ellsbury (3.71)

4) Jose Bautista (3.63)

5) Justin Upton (3.38)

6) Curtis Granderson (3.32)

7) Carlos Gonzales (3.32)

8) Andrew McCutchen (3.17)

9) Mike Stanton (3.12)

10) Matt Holliday (3.10)

11) Josh Hamilton (2.99)

12) Jay Bruce (2.97)

13) Hunter Pence (2.94)

14) Corey Hart (2.90)

15) Michael Cuddyer (2.88)

16) Ben Zobrist (2.87)

17) Michael Bourn (2.86)

18) Nelson Cruz (2.86)

19) BJ Upton (2.82)

20) Michael Morse (2.73)

21) Alex Gordon (2.72)

22) Lance Berkman (2.71)

23) Shane Victorino (2.66)

24) Adam Jones (2.64)

25) Chris Young (2.64)

26) Melky Cabrera (2.63)

27) Shin-Soo Choo (2.62)

28) Carl Crawford (2.61)

29) Jayson Werth (2.60)

30) Carlos Beltran (2.58)

31) Jeff Francoeur (2.56)

32) Carlos Lee (2.55)

33) Desmond Jennings (2.52)

34) Torii Hunter (2.52)

35) Howard Kendrick (2.51)

36) Nick Swisher (2.50)

37) Ichiro Suzuki (2.49)

38) Angel Pagan (2.49)

39) Brett Gardner (2.44)

40) Jason Kubel (2.44)

41) Josh Willingham (2.43)

42) Nick Markakis (2.42)

43) Coco Crisp (2.40)

44) Cameron Maybin (2.38)

45) Drew Stubbs (2.37)

46) Colby Rasmus (2.35)

47) Andre Ethier (2.34)

48) Delmon Young (2.33)

49) Allen Craig (2.32)

50) Alex Rios (2.31)

Outside the top 15, you're stuck with players who have measurable flaws and/or a large downside. There are a few players outside the top 50 I like- Heyward and Logan Morrison, to name two. Given the upside, I would take them if the draft falls in such a way that I don't have anyone else to take when they come up.

Starting Pitcher

1) Justin Verlander (3.65)

2) Clayton Kershaw (3.63)

3) Roy Halladay (3.53)

4) Cliff Lee (3.35)

5) Felix Hernandez (3.24)

6) Jered Weaver (3.23)

7) Dan Haren (3.20)

8) Cole Hamels (3.10)

9) Tim Lincecum (3.10)

10) CC Sabathia(3.04)

11) Zack Grienke (3.02)

12) Yovanni Gallardo (3.01)

13) Matt Moore (3.01)

14) David Price (2.98)

15) Jon Lester (2.96)

16) James Shields (2.94)

17) Stephen Strasburg (2.92)

18) Matt Cain (2.89)

19) CJ Wilson (2.87)

20) Ian Kennedy (2.84)

21) Mat Latos (2.79)

22) Tommy Hanson (2.76)

23) Michael Pineda (2.75)

24) Chris Carpenter (2.69)

25) Ubaldo Jimenez (2.68)

26) Jeremy Hellickson (2.66)

27) Madison Bumgarner (2.66)

28) Adam Wainwright (2.65)

29) Ricky Romero (2.63)

30) Daniel Hudson (2.63)

31) Josh Beckett (2.60)

32) Josh Johnson (2.51)

33) Matt Garza (2.50)

34) Jordan Zimmerman (2.49)

35) Hiroki Kuroda (2.44)

36) Brandon Beachy (2.42)

37) Shaun Marcum (2.40)

38) Jaime Garcia (2.40)

39) Max Scherzer (2.39)

40) Ervin Santana (2.34)

41) Cory Luebke (2.33)

42) Tim Hudson (2.33)

43) Anibal Sanchez (2.32)

44) Brandon McCarthy (2.32)

45) Ted Lilly (2.31)

46) Justin Masterson (2.30)

47) Doug Fister (2.30)

48) Tim Stauffer (2.29)

49) Scott Baker (2.29)

50) Colby Lewis (2.29)

The usual words of caution about young pitchers, hurlers coming off injury, etc., all apply here. That said, I'm bullish on most of the pitchers listed here, and would avoid most pitchers not on this list. I would, however, keep an eye on Jhoulys Chacin, Wandy Rodriguez and Brandon Morrow (for the Ks), John Danks, Mike Minor, and Bud Norris. The thing about pitchers is that only one of their stats is completely under their control- Ks. The H in WHIP, ERA, and especially Wins are influenced by outside factors, and Wins especially are entirely unpredictable. Given that, I'd look at these ranks as a general guide more so than with positional players.

Relief Pitchers

1) Craig Kimbrel (3.37)

2) Mariano Rivera (3.19)

3) Jonathan Papelbon (2.85)

4) Rafael Betancourt (2.83)

5) Huston Street (2.8)

6) Tyler Clippard (2.73)

7) Drew Storen (2.68)

8) JJ Putz (2.65)

9) Joel Hanrahan (2.64)

10) Kyle Farnsworth (2.58)

11) Ryan Madson (2.57)

12) Jason Motte (2.53)

13) Mike Adams (2.50)

14) Andrew Bailey (2.41)

15) Kenley Jansen (2.38)

16) Jose Valverde (2.37)

17) Brian Wilson (2.36)

18) John Axford (2.32)

19) Joakim Soria (2.22)

20) Grant Balfour (2.18)

I eliminated RP-eligible starters like Chris Sale and Cory Luebke. After that, we see two non-closers on the list: Clippard and Adams. Both are high-strikeout, low-ERA, low-WHIP guys who should get the odd win/save to boost their value. Essentially, you're targeting skills and not roles. Wilson and Axford have potential WHIP issues, which knocks their value down a bit, but they do have a good handle on the job. Overall, these rankings and numbers should be taken with a grain of salt; closers are unpredictable and will be there in later rounds.

Strict Mock Draft

I did a mock draft following these rankings strictly; that is, I took the highest-rated player by VUM on my board regardless of need, likelihood of being available later, etc. I picked with the 8th spot in the 1st round, and here are the results:

Round 1: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF

Round 2: Justin Verlander, SP

Round 3: Craig Kimbrel, RP

Round 4: Jered Weaver, SP

Round 5: Mariano Rivera, RP

Round 6: Yovanni Gallardo, SP

Round 7: Matt Moore, SP

Round 8: Matt Cain, SP

Round 9: Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF

Round 10: Jonathan Papelbon, RP

Round 11: Rafael Betancourt, RP

Round 12: Huston Street, RP

Round 13: Tyler Clippard, RP

Round 14: Ryan Roberts, 2B/3B

Round 15: Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B

Round 16: Melky Cabrera, OF

Round 17: Kyle Farnsworth, RP

Round 18: Jeff Francouer, OF

Round 19: Danny Espinosa, 2B

Round 20: Colby Rasmus, OF

Round 21: Delmon Young, OF

Round 22: Jemile Weeks, 2B

Round 23: Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B/3B

Round 24: Kurt Suzuki, C

Round 25: Jason Bartlett, SS

Obviously, that's one hell of a pitching staff that should lead across the board. The position players leave something to be desired, though, and that's a problem. It looks like the system overvalues pitchers relative to their actual ADP, and I could likely get a similar pitching staff while taking better hitters in early rounds. The massive and systemic overvaluation of closers is also apparent, with me taking 7 overall, and 6 of the 30 available closers. It makes for good trade ammunition, but that's a risky route to go. As constituted, this is probably a 3rd or 4th place team, but a solid trade or two of pitching for hitting (say, Verlander and Kimbrel for Votto), even if I overpay, leaves me in good shape. This highlights the risk of following the rankings strictly. However, I'd still say this is a solid foundation to build from.

One more thing- it can be a little difficult dealing with fine distinctions on a 0-5 number scale. If you multiply the numbers by 20, making the scale 0-100, it's a little easier to deal with.

Player Movement: David DeJesus

It's time to start the fantasy analysis of offseason movement, and we start with a tricky one: David DeJesus' 2-year, $10M deal with the Cubs. This is tricky for two reasons: 1) DeJesus is a lifelong AL player to date, meaning little data against the teams he'll face most, and 2) questions about what his playing time will be. In fact, his best comparable per Baseball Reference is Marlon Byrd, already on the Cubs' roster. Unless Epstein and Hoyer have a taker for Soriano or (more likely) Byrd, or the Cubs' outfield prospects are less ready than previously thought, or someone is moving to first base, it's a question as to how much he'll play (and where). But a $5 million per year deal isn't bench player money, so we'll assume he plays.

DeJesus has a career .284/.356/.776 career BA/OBP/OPS line, with an average of 11 HR, 8 SB (against 7 CS), 90 Runs and 70 RBI per 162 games. He strikes out a fair bit (93 per 162 games) but walks enough (58 per 162 games) for a decent .624 K/BB ratio. On ESPN's Player Rater, he was 390th best player (comparable to Dustin Ackley or Clay Buchholz), the 216th best hitter, and the 108th best OF- bench player numbers at best, but really not worth a roster spot. For 2010, those numbers were 290, 157, and 78, respectively. Better, but still not more than a bench player. He fared a little better last year as a points-league player, ranking 76th among OFs.

It's worth noting that last year he played for the A's, with an abysmal offense in a pitcher's park, and before that he played for the woeful Royals. His numbers are going to suffer for that, though there still doesn't seem to be anything to be excited about. It's not as if the 2012 Cubs are the '27 Yankees reborn. So what will moving to the Cubs do for him?

Well, the Cubs play a lot of day games. The good news is that DeJesus' splits aren't that different between day and night, so it shouldn't be too bad unless or until the multitude of day games starts to wear on him. He also has never taken an at-bat in Wrigley, so we don't have any immediately relevant numbers there. He does have a 31% fly ball ratio, which will be interesting. In the first 6(ish) and last 2(ish) weeks of the season, the air is cold and the wind blows in at Wrigley- that knocks down a lot of fly balls, and so we're going to see more outs than usual and a drop in his career 6.67% HR/FB number. But in the middle months, it won't be worse and could easily be better. If his power numbers go up at the Friendly Confines, it won't be apparent until late May or even June.

Having been an AL player, there isn't much data on how he'll fare against his new division rivals. He's hit well against the Cards' Westbrook and Lohse, and Edwin Jackson too if he returns. But beyond that, there isn't enough data to care about. In general, he treads water against power pitchers (.246/.333/.686 10 HR, 160 K, 87 BB in 756 AB) while faring well against finesse pitchers (.297/.364/.799, 37 HR, 211K, 164 BB in 1857 AB). This isn't fantastic news for someone who will face Grienke, Gallardo, Carpenter, Wainwright, Wandy, and Aroldis Chapman (if he starts). The pitching in the NL central may not be great, but there are some major strikeout pitchers there. Basically, he'll feast on the back-end pitchers.

Nothing overly insightful here, but it doesn't look like the move all of a sudden spikes DeJesus' value. He's worth keeping an eye on to see if a mid-season pickup is warranted, but he's not going to do any one thing well enough or better than his career average to warrant even a late-round flyer in roto leagues, though he hits for extra bases enough to be a last pick in points leagues.

Countdown to new posts

The dissertation is progressing apace, though still not done. I'll try to post some analysis as soon as there's real free agency movement. I'm also working on a post analyzing cases that go to arbitration- predicting salaries, which side wins, etc. If anyone knows where I can find easy access to information on DL stints for players, that would help. I hate combing through the transaction lists for team websites.

On Hiatus

I hate to do this so early in the life of the blog, but I need to put things on Hiatus for roughly 2 months. I simply don't have the time to write my dissertation and put the hours into the analysis and writing I think this blog deserves. And, knowing myself, I'd put the time into the blog rather than the degree. So goodbye for now, and updates will resume in August.

I plan on coming back with a vengeance.

My 2011 in Fantasy Baseball: Weeks 6 & 7; plus, an update

Posting has been sporadic recently due to my dissertation being in full swing and various personal and family matters, some good (hooray impending wedding!) some less good (not for public consumption). I do have a few posts I'm working on, some of which I hinted at in my last post, but the time available to work on them has decreased in both amount and regularity. At this point, I fear I'll only be able to do a few posts a month, but I'll try and keep these updates weekly. Unfortunately, I was out of town and unavailable to blog last week.

Similarly, instead of going through the usual rigamarole, I'll be condensing this series of posts; the truncation will be at least for the next few posts. Anyway, here we go....

Waveland & Clark (H2H Points)

Record: 3-3 (3rd, 1 GB)

Update: The season hasn't been going as well as planned, in part due to injuries and in part because I'm not too good at managing weekly lineups yet. I swung a major trade recently, giving up Stephen Drew (whose constant day-to-day status was irritating) and Marcum for Hanley Ramirez and Kyle Lohse. I hate Lohse. But Han-Ram was worth the trade, and maybe Lohse is productive. In fact, I've overhauled my staff entirely. Three weeks ago, it was Weaver/Chacin/Liriano/T Hudson/Marcum/Zambrano/Wade Davis/Pineda; now Marcum, Davis and Liriano are out while Lohse, Ian Kennedy, and Homer Bailey are in and I'm contemplating a roster move that will allow me to get Jonathan Sanchez off waivers (short version: I don't want to drop Lohse just yet, but I'm also reluctant to drop Matt Wieters, by far the best backup catcher available).

Cubbie Blues (5x5 Roto)

Standings: 1st place, 88/100 pts

Update: I keep flirting with 90+ points for short periods of time, but my batting average always brings me down. I picked up Hosmer, Logan Morrison and Matt Joyce and swung a trade of Cordero/J. Sanchez/Fuld for Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. I have at least 8.5 points out of ten in every category except average; moreover, average is the only category where I couldn't theoretically be in first place next week if I had a good week. It's a fairly inactive league, which blunts the thrill of domination, but I'll still take it.

Cubs Expatriot (H2H Categories)

Standings: 44-11-5, 1st place

Update: Here's another league where I'm dominating. It took me until mid-May to have double-digit category losses. No notable moves, aside from the standard streaming pitchers and occasional roster replacements (Joyce and Hosmer, mainly). I keep losing at least one of (and usually both) ERA/WHIP for some reason, given that my pitching is quite good. Brandon Morrow won't help those categories, but Brett Anderson/Jered Weaver/King Felix/Pineda/Marcum should be enough, though lately it hasn't been. I have little incentive to fix what isn't broken, which is probably why I'm still holding onto Juan Pierre and his .242 batting average. I'd do just as well to pick up Rajai Davis.

Cubbie Blues (7x7 roto)

Standings: 5th place, 76/140 points

Update: This certainly represents my highest standing at the end of a day so far this season, if not my best point total. After being mired at the bottom of the standings, I've embarked upon a major roster overhaul. The idea is to put myself in a position where I have a lot of assets, regardless of need/balance. If I'm competitive, then great. Otherwise, I use them to get keepers for next year. Since there's no value (all keepers cost the same regardless of anything), this means making godfather offers (like "I give you Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler and Matt Cain for Hanley Ramirez). But until I'm definitely out of it, I'm waiting on those. Of the two big moves, the first was trading Marcum, Gaby Sanchez, Brandon Phillips and Anibal Sanchez for Lincecum, Brett Anderson and Uggla. The second was trading Mitch Moreland straight-up for Ian Kinsler.

Now here's what I mean about "regardless of need/balance." My first baseman is Matt LaPorta. In two weeks, I traded Billy Butler, Gaby Sanchez, and Mitch Moreland- three productive first basemen. I have Kinsler, Aviles, and Uggla all 2B eligible. Kinsler was a complete non-need; the occasional power is nice but I didn't really need the average or speed he provided. But Kinsler is more likely to be a tradeable asset than Moreland; people may want to keep Kinsler and he has higher name value (if not actual value).

I can only keep five players, at the cost of my first available pick for each. My major assets are Reyes, Bautista, McCann, Uggla, Kinsler, Kemp, Hamilton, and Lincecum- eight potential keepers, depending on personal preferences. If I can only keep five, then I can use these players and lesser lights in trades to overwhelm a contender for a player. For example, the current 2nd place team has needs in WHIP, steals, and saves. If I offer him Kinsler, Reyes and Paplebon for Hanley, that's a good deal for him (addresses needs) and for me (I get a major keeper). It's not "fair," since I'm giving up so much value for one player, but it leaves me in better shape for next year if it gets to that point.

I don't know if or when it will get to that point- my weakness is pitching across the board, but a staff anchored by Lincecum, Chacin, Brett Anderson, and Cain (with Way-Rod and Colby Lewis to boot) should be more competitive than dead-last for pitching stats.

My 2011 in Fantasy Baseball: Week 5

I'm currently working on a mega-post on assessing trade value in various leagues, with a focus on swapping pitchers with hitters. I'm also in the middle of another mega-post on first-month analysis. It's a ton of work, but they'll hopefully both go up this week. In the meantime...

Bernie's Bomber's (H2H points)

Standings: 2-2, T-2nd in Cheese

Last Matchup: W, 357-236

MVP of the Matchup: Jered Weaver (9.0 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 10K, W, CG, SO, 41 pts) and Robinson Cano (8/24, 4 HR, 7 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, SB, 41 pts)

Goat of the Matchup: No real goats this week, though Tim Hudson was my low scorer (9 pts)

The Skinny: Not much doing this past week. I just stayed the course and managed to win pretty handily. A couple of my two-starts didn't pan out due to having one of those starts pushed back (Wade Davis, Jered Weaver) so those guys are just two-starters this week instead.

Looking Ahead: I get Victor Martinez and Logan Morrison back this week, but not in enough time to put them in my lineup. I won't have to drop anyone because they're sitting on my bench, so I may not drop Wieters and instead hang onto him as a trade chip. If he becomes a top-10 catcher this year, I can turn him into something more valuable.

My next matchup gives me the opportunity to take over first place. It doesn't look out of the question, barring bad luck. Just to help, I dropped the platoon-bound Seth Smith for Coco Crisp, and put him in the lineup instead of Span (seven games to five).

Cubbie Blues (5x5 Roto)

Standings: 1st place, 81/100 points

Weekly Line: 82/317 (.259 Avg), 45 R, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 6 SB; 54.2 IP, 45 H, 24 BB, 22 ER, 59 K, 2 W, 9 Sv, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP.

MVP of the Week: Jay Bruce (6/24, 6 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB) in spite of the average.

Goat of the Week: Jose Tabata (1/18, R, RBI)

The Skinny: My stats are finally coming on, though my rates didn't improve as much as I would have hoped. I did rise quite a bit in the standings this week, gaining 7 points since last Monday and 17.5 points in the last half-month. My rate stats seem to see-saw quite a bit between great and average, and this was an average week.

Looking Ahead: My grasp on 1st place is a little tenuous. I may be top-half in all categories, but I only lead two (one outright, one tied) and in many cases I could be overtaken. I'm up two in runs, five in RBI, two in Ks, and one in wins. In short, the people behind me are closer to me than I am to the people ahead of me. I could easily lose ten points with a terrible week, and I'll quite likely lose one or two next week. That's not great against a 3.5 point lead. This isn't an active league- only three teams make regular transactions and there have been none in the past week. That's dangerous, because it means that (for the most part) I need to work the waiver wire well, but drops will get scooped up by the few people who pay attention. Either almost everyone needs to be active, or no one needs to be active. This in-between is hard.

Cubs Expatriot (H2H categories)

Standings: 32-6-2, 1st in East

Last Matchup: 8-2-0, 38/9/39/7/.2171 vs. 31/6/32/3/.2759; 82/8/4/4.331/1.290 vs 54/3/0/3.582/1.301

MVP of the Matchup: BJ Upton had the best week (8/23, 6 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB) but a solid outing from a streamed Philip Humber (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 2K) helped me take WHIP at the last second.

Goat of the Matchup: The troika of Brett Anderson, Kyle McClellan, and Liriano (13.2 IP, 23 H, 10 BB, 19 ER, 8 K, 12.512 ERA, 2.415 WHIP). That cost me 9-1-0.

The Skinny: I'm done with Liriano in this league. I don't need him. My average took a tumble from last week, with four players hitting above .250 and only two above .300 for the matchup. I am getting good at matchup acquisitions for this league, though. For example, Desmond was out for a few games so I dropped him for Aybar, knowing my SS production doesn't matter too much. I also tend to hold onto pitchers until Thursday, when I start streaming based on matchups. This week it was Liriano for McClellan (ugh), McClellan for Baker, Baker for Humber, then Humber for Floyd. Not too shabby, and though the results weren't great I'd take that stream any day of the week. I ended by dropping Floyd for Ryan Roberts- I prefer not to have too many bench hitters in this league, since the day-to-day lineup moves don't matter as much with who I've got. But with Tabata out for a little but not necessarily on the DL, I needed another OF just to have a full roster. I also dropped Contreras for Farnsworth, deciding that the extra spot is best used on another good reliever. And I never thought I'd say that about Farnsworth after watching him on the Cubs.

Looking Ahead: Weaver is my only two-starter this week. I may have to sacrifice pitching a little this week anyway, though. My opponent is big on hitting (Fielder, Phillips, Martin, A-Rod, Tulo, Choo, Ellsbury, Chris Young) and light on pitching (T Hudson, Cahill, CJ Wilson, E-Jax and Beachy starting, Rivera, Chris Perez, Cordero and Walden closing). He outhits me by four bombs and 8 RBI per matchup, though I have a better average, and more runs/steals. He also has a much better ERA than I do. I basically have to hope that Jackson gets hit, he has a few blown saves, and a cold streak from some hitters (many of whom I have on other teams). This is more likely to be a 5-4-1 week for me than 8-2-0 or 9-0-1. He's in 2nd right behind me in the division, so this is a good opportunity for both of us.

Cubbie Blues (7x7 Roto)

Standings: 74/140 points, 31 back

Last Week: 71/277 (.256 BA), 39 R, 14 2B, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 44 K, 81.1 IP, 86 H, 25 BB, 7 HRA, 60 K, 4 QS, 4 W, 4 Sv, 4.20 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

MVP of the Week: Brandon Phillips (9/24, 5 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 K)

Goat of the Week: Do I really need to tell you it's Liriano?

The Skinny: I finally had enough and dropped Liriano in this league as well. I'm pretty far behind on starts, so I started doing a little streaming with that spot in this league as well. It's not like I don't have the pitching spots. I also had the good fortune to pick up two temporary closers in Madson and Oliver, which will help my numbers some. I also made a trade this week for pitching, giving up Billy Butler, Macier Izturis and Jonny Gomes for Jhoulys Chacin and Alex Rios. It looks like a bad trade on its face, and it does give me pause, but I could give up the average and I needed the pitching pretty badly. Rios is the wildcard here- if he has a good run, then he's a great addition. If he continues to struggle, I'm screwed. Ideally, he heats up in May/early June and I can move him for someone more consistent. In any event, he essentially replaces Jonny Gomes, so it's not like I took a large hit to BA with the swap. I added Mike Aviles in the extra spot.

Looking Ahead: I have just enough hitting to be respectable, especially if I get some power going. The problem is my pitching is hideous. If you look at just my hitting-based points (fifty), I'm in 2nd place. If you look at just my hitting (24 points) I'm pretty far behind, not in last but not by much. The trick is giving away just enough where I can- BA, SB, K, R- to get solid pitching (especially ERA/WHIP) without taking a huge hit I can't afford. Billy Butler was my big chip on that front- .300 hitter, OK for 2B/HR, few Ks, team that runs- and I'm kicking myself that I only got Chacin for him (as much as I like Chacin). This means essentially I have to continue to play the "what can I get for Josh Hamilton" game. I need a good pitcher to move him, especially since this is a keeper league, since his return will help but not necessarily where I need it the most. I keep getting Zobrist/Roberts type offers from the 1st place team, but I need a pitcher in that deal. He has Price/Verlander/Lee/Grienke, any of whom would be good and an upgrade over any of my starters (anchored by Cain, Marcum and now Chacin). He steadfastly refuses, though. Ideally I put together a package of Hamilton/Wandy for Verlander or Grienke/Zobrist, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

Other Leagues

I do have a handful of other leagues I'm in. There's one more 5x5 league that drafted in-season, and I've gone from 6th at the start (seriously, they assigned us stats based on our draft) to 3rd now. I made a mega-trade offer off the bat of A-Gon/Desmond/Gardner/Scherzer/Sanchez for Hanley/CarGo/Sabathia- a reach to be sure, but not so bad. The guy acted like I insulted his wife. But he still needs a ton of hitting and strikeouts/wins, languishing in 8th place. Meanwhile, I'm rocketing up the standings and as soon as my WHIP normalizes I'll be in 1st. I get no small satisfaction out of this, especially since he named his team "Why O Why Am I So Good." Given that only Rajai Davis is his source of steals (I have Desmond and Upton), only Ryan Roberts has 5 homers (I have Miggy, Beltre, and Chris Young), and he has no strikeout-per-inning pitchers (I have Lester, Marcum, Scherzer, Sanchez, and D Hudson), he can be indignant all the way to the cellar. Quality-for-quantity trades are always unappealing, especially to the guy giving up quality, but he needs it. Unless he thinks Darwin Barney is for real, Span/Boesch will run more, and Billingsley/Shields/Pineda/Floyd will give him good seasons instead of good parts of seasons, he really needs a lot of small upgrades at the expense of a few stars.

I'm in a H2H categories league (standard, plus 2B/OPB/QS/HD) where most categories takes a win (i.e. if I go 8-6-0, 4-10-0, and 6-5-3 my record is 2-1 and not 18-21-3). For this league, we got to pick two teams and were assigned ten players from those two teams by the LM. I came in late with only four teams left to take, so I got the Reds and Mariners. This gave me Votto, Figgins, Bruce, Stubbs, Ichiro, Phillips, Cordero, Felix, Arroyo and Wood. I dropped Wood and traded Phillips/Cordero/Rollins (not on the Philly team?) for Longoria/Walker/McClellan. It's a 14 team league, with small active rosters (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/3 OF/Util/SP/5 RP) but a deep bench (10, plus 4 DL). I'm currently tied for 1st in the division at 3-1, and 4th overall based on tie-breakers.

Last, there's another H2H points league. 16 teams and ultra-deep. I took this team over, so it's not great, and I'm having a hard time adjusting to the depth of the league (I mean, Pierzynksi as my catcher?). Interestingly, there's a cap of 8 starts for pitchers and 82 starts for hitters, with penalties for going over. That makes it a pretty tough juggling act, since I can't have every hitter spot active every day (13 active hitters). That's not really possible, of course, but the point remains that I have to have 9 dead spots per week. It's four 4-team divisions, and I'm in 1st in mine with a 3-1 record. That's interesting, since I'm 10th in points for and 15th in points against.

My 2011 in Fantasy Baseball: Week 4

Sorry for the belated post (for my small handful of regular readers). I was on a mini-vacation to celebrate having my dissertation proposal approved and didn't get to post yesterday. So, without further ado...

Bernie's Bombers (H2H Points)

Standings: 1-2, T-3rd in Cheese (1 GB)

Last Matchup: L, 268-274

MVP of the Matchup: Jered Weaver, 9.0 IP, 6H, 8K, W, CG, 37 pts

Goat of the Matchup: Edwin Jackson, 12.2 IP, 23 H, 5 BB, 11 ER, 6 K, 2 L, -12 pts

The Skinny: That I only lost by six points is amazing, given that I started both Victor Martinez and Logan Morrison for a combined four at-bats last week- both got locked into my weekly lineup and injured during their respective first games. I actually would have won if Zambrano hadn't completely crapped the bed on Sunday to the tune of 6 earned runs and a loss (-2 points); a simple six innings and a no-decision would have been enough. It still counts as a loss in the standings, but a six-point loss with two dead roster spots and four games lost to rain is pretty good. I wasn't even the lowest point-scorer of the week. It reinforces the fact that I have a solid team all around.

Looking Ahead: I need to learn to manage weekly lineups a little better. I knew, for example, that Martinez had strained his groin over the weekend, but it looked like he would play so I put him in. Instead, he aggravated the injury and landed on the DL. I also made quite a few roster moves, two of them being picking up Ryan Roberts and Seth Smith. They are great additions for daily leagues, but I'm realizing that neither is great for weekly leagues given playing-time issues. I also need to figure out how to take weather into account, since I once again lost quite a few games to rain postponements.

Case in point: I decided to pick up Wieters as a replacement catcher. In and of itself, it's a good call- he was the best catcher available by a mile. But this means that this week I have three Orioles in my starting lineup (Roberts and Markakis as well), and with three games in Baltimore and three in Chicago the potential for rainouts in April is pretty high.

I dropped a lot of my spare pitchers to cover for injuries. One of my pickups is Jed Lowrie, who I packaged with Daniel Hudson in a trade for Shaun Marcum. I like Lowrie a lot- he was top-20 in points per plate appearance last year- but his value will never be higher than right now. He's currently 22/51 (.431) with 3 dingers (or one every 17 at-bats). If you think .300 with 20 bombs is a likely final line for him, that means (assuming 550 at-bats) he's going to hit about .287 the rest of the way with one homer every 29.4 at-bats. That's solid production, but it's also about what the season projection is for Stephen Drew. And Lowrie has no track record- he may not do that well, and it's unlikely he'll do better. For his career- irregular playing time and all- he's hit .269, one homer every 34.4 at-bats, with a strikeout every 4.62 at-bats (comparable to Jason "cut down the Ks" Heyward). Maybe he progresses, maybe he gets exposed. But he's no sure thing. And as for Hudson... well, I like Marcum a lot more. Who doesn't?

Cubbie Blues (5x5 Roto)

Standings: 2nd place (74/100 points, 6.5 points back)

Weekly Line: 86/314 (.274), 54 R, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 9 SB, 71.1 IP, 50 H, 24 ER, 27 BB, 59 K, 7 W, 3 Sv, 3.03 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

MVP of the Week: Ryan Braun, 3 HR, 1 SB, 8 RBI, .414 BA

Goat of the Week: Daniel Hudson, 11.81 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 3K

The Skinny: Some of my hitters returned to earth this week with Uggla, Butler, Bruce and Tabata all hitting under .200 and another 5 hitting under .250 for the past week. I'm gaining ground, though, with the RBI/HR coming and my ERA/WHIP returning to a normal level. I dropped Brett Gardner for Ryan Roberts (ah, daily leagues), dropped an injured Logan Morrison for Michael Pineda and swapped out Brandon Lyon for Huston Street. The fact that I've so far this season picked up Street, Jaime Garcia, and Stephen Drew (not to mention another four closers at various points) means I'm comfortable dropping almost anyone, since I can get people off waivers fairly easily.

Looking Ahead: Aside from having to manage my starts a little better (I'm on pace for 210 against a 200 cap), I'm just staying the course. I've got more talent on the roster than I know what to do with, and eventually I'll figure out a way to exploit it in a trade.

Cubs Expatriot (H2H Categories)

Standings: 24-4-2, 1st in East

Last Week: 9-0-1; 42/11/43/11/.2628 vs 25/5/25/4/.1978, 75/6/8/2.221/0.974 vs 61/6/1/4.299/1.194

MVP of the Matchup: Brett Anderson, 15.0 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 14 K, 2 W, 0.60 ERA, 0.73 WHIP

Goat of the Matchup: Daniel Hudson was pretty worthless

The Skinny: I just keep cruising along with this team. After the trade for King Felix I had an extra roster spot, so I used it on a flyer with Grady Sizemore. I also shifted my DL spot from Morrow to V-Mart. I dropped Ryan Franklin to grab Nick Hundley as a replacement catcher and swapped out Erick Aybar for Ian Desmond. Last week I fully embraced the load up on pitchers/bare minimum hitters strategy, and it seems to be working. By simply overloading on pitchers and counting on a few anchors (Weaver, Felix, maybe Marcum and the relievers) I can keep my WHIP/ERA safe while piling on Ks/Ws/Svs.

Looking Ahead: I don't have a single bench spot for a hitter, and as risky as that feels I'm by-and-large running away with things so far. I'm still middle of the pack in HR/RBI, and so I may need to change that at some point, but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. I've built up a 7.5 game cushion in my division, and if I have a few more eight to ten win weeks I can wrap things up before the all-star break. There's so much pitching left on the waiver wire- Storen, Lyon, Boggs, Gregg, Rauch, Burnett for closers; more starters than I can name- that I can afford to make another pitching-centric trade and beef up my roster even more. I don't need to do this yet, but it's clear the option is there. I can't just coast, since there are playoffs, but getting in doesn't look like a problem barring a catastrophic rash of injuries.

Cubbie Blues (7x7 Roto)

Standings: 6th place (73.5/140, 29 pts back)

Weekly Line: 75/282 (.266), 48 R, 12 2B, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 51 K, 8 SB; 70.0 IP, 70 H, 26 BB, 30 ER, 10 HRA, 55 K, 5 QS, 4 W, 3 Sv, 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP.

MVP of the Week: Jose Bautista, .529 BA, 5 HR

Goat of the Week: Billy Butler, .182 BA, 6K

The Skinny: I'm actually doing OK right now. My power numbers aren't great, but they're serviceable. Meanwhile, my pitching numbers are bad, but improving. Part of the issue is that I have the fewest starts in the league, so my counting numbers are bad and my rates are disproportionately affected by bad outings. But a staff with Cain and Marcum is a good start.

Looking Ahead: I'm staying the course for now, filling needs as they arise. I think this is more the time for waiver-wire magic than an outright overhaul. I was in a similar position last year with my roto league, and pulled off a 1st place finish.