Player Movement: David DeJesus

It's time to start the fantasy analysis of offseason movement, and we start with a tricky one: David DeJesus' 2-year, $10M deal with the Cubs. This is tricky for two reasons: 1) DeJesus is a lifelong AL player to date, meaning little data against the teams he'll face most, and 2) questions about what his playing time will be. In fact, his best comparable per Baseball Reference is Marlon Byrd, already on the Cubs' roster. Unless Epstein and Hoyer have a taker for Soriano or (more likely) Byrd, or the Cubs' outfield prospects are less ready than previously thought, or someone is moving to first base, it's a question as to how much he'll play (and where). But a $5 million per year deal isn't bench player money, so we'll assume he plays.

DeJesus has a career .284/.356/.776 career BA/OBP/OPS line, with an average of 11 HR, 8 SB (against 7 CS), 90 Runs and 70 RBI per 162 games. He strikes out a fair bit (93 per 162 games) but walks enough (58 per 162 games) for a decent .624 K/BB ratio. On ESPN's Player Rater, he was 390th best player (comparable to Dustin Ackley or Clay Buchholz), the 216th best hitter, and the 108th best OF- bench player numbers at best, but really not worth a roster spot. For 2010, those numbers were 290, 157, and 78, respectively. Better, but still not more than a bench player. He fared a little better last year as a points-league player, ranking 76th among OFs.

It's worth noting that last year he played for the A's, with an abysmal offense in a pitcher's park, and before that he played for the woeful Royals. His numbers are going to suffer for that, though there still doesn't seem to be anything to be excited about. It's not as if the 2012 Cubs are the '27 Yankees reborn. So what will moving to the Cubs do for him?

Well, the Cubs play a lot of day games. The good news is that DeJesus' splits aren't that different between day and night, so it shouldn't be too bad unless or until the multitude of day games starts to wear on him. He also has never taken an at-bat in Wrigley, so we don't have any immediately relevant numbers there. He does have a 31% fly ball ratio, which will be interesting. In the first 6(ish) and last 2(ish) weeks of the season, the air is cold and the wind blows in at Wrigley- that knocks down a lot of fly balls, and so we're going to see more outs than usual and a drop in his career 6.67% HR/FB number. But in the middle months, it won't be worse and could easily be better. If his power numbers go up at the Friendly Confines, it won't be apparent until late May or even June.

Having been an AL player, there isn't much data on how he'll fare against his new division rivals. He's hit well against the Cards' Westbrook and Lohse, and Edwin Jackson too if he returns. But beyond that, there isn't enough data to care about. In general, he treads water against power pitchers (.246/.333/.686 10 HR, 160 K, 87 BB in 756 AB) while faring well against finesse pitchers (.297/.364/.799, 37 HR, 211K, 164 BB in 1857 AB). This isn't fantastic news for someone who will face Grienke, Gallardo, Carpenter, Wainwright, Wandy, and Aroldis Chapman (if he starts). The pitching in the NL central may not be great, but there are some major strikeout pitchers there. Basically, he'll feast on the back-end pitchers.

Nothing overly insightful here, but it doesn't look like the move all of a sudden spikes DeJesus' value. He's worth keeping an eye on to see if a mid-season pickup is warranted, but he's not going to do any one thing well enough or better than his career average to warrant even a late-round flyer in roto leagues, though he hits for extra bases enough to be a last pick in points leagues.