The results were interesting. Injured players fell a lot, of course. Some rankings changed based on in-season injuries, etc., in interesting ways- Matt Holliday showed up at #75 in the draft window! Good early performers were overvalued, but not as much as I might thought. And the hot young commodities (Britton, Herrera) were often chosen over more established stars. Since I have the time, here's a long-form draft recap. I got my favorite pick- #10 in the first round- and used my VUM rankings to guide my picks for the most part, after adjusting for injuries and such.
My team is "Ron Santo's Black Cat," after the famous feline that precipitated the collapse of the 1969 Cubs and made the Miracle Mets possible. I'll be adding this team to the "My 2011 in Fantasy" posts, because those weren't already long enough or anything. My choices are italicized.
Round 1
Tulowitzki, Pujols, Halladay, Hanley Ramirez, Votto, Crawford, A-Rod, Braun, Longoria, Miguel Cabrera
I thought Tulowitzki was an odd choice at #1, though not horrible. If he plays 150+ games this season and doesn't have a brutal cold streak, I can (kinda) defend the pick. He could well outperform Han-Ram. Halladay was questionable here because of the depth of pitching, and A-Rod may or may not be worth this pick. I also thought Braun at 8 was a steal. Cabrera was the top rated player on my board at this point.
Round 2
Adrian Gonzales, Cano, Kemp, Howard, Teixeira, Fielder, CarGo, Lincecum, Cruz, Wright
I then grabbed Gonzales on the wrap-around not only because he was the next-highest rated player, but the pick helps solidify batting average/power/RBI early on. I mean, I can easily play both, and with Pujols and Votto off the board too I thought I could cause a run on 1B. This seems a little high to take Howard/Tex/Fielder (just a little), but that's what I wanted to make happen. Can't argue with Kemp/Cruz/CarGo the way they've been playing
Round 3
Jered Weaver, Pedroia, Felix Hernandez, Youkilis, Reyes, Cliff Lee, Kershaw, Justin Upton, Hamilton, Jon Lester
I actually think Weaver is worth being picked about here relative to the other pitchers. The same guy drafted Hamilton and Longoria, but he wasn't in the room. I don't know who joins a draft and bails immediately. I wanted a pitcher in the first five rounds to anchor my staff, and with the clear early run on pitching I needed to do it with this pick or the next. Given who was left, Lester seemed like the best choice. I don't think you need to take pitching in the first three rounds, but sometimes you have to adjust to how other people are drafting. If pitching is going early, then you have to get yours.
Round 4
Jose Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman, Haren, Josh Johnson, Choo, Verlander, Kinsler, Uggla, Konerko, Weeks
I thought about taking Holliday (I was looking for him), but foolishly waited thinking his #75 ranking (which would preclude him from coming up in the draft window) would help him last until my next pick. Not quite. I ended up taking Bautista to solidify my power base along with some 3B/OF flexibility. This meant any power beyond this point is gravy- I should already have nearly 120 bombs. The positional runs at this point intrigued me: we had one on first, then one on pitching, and now one on 2B. It's pretty early for Uggla and Weeks, but Kinsler might be an inspired choice here.
Round 5
Holliday, Rasmus, Werth, Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Mauer, Ichiro Suzuki, McCutchen, Beltre
And down goes Holliday. C'est la vie. Mo Rivera is an eyebrow-raiser here, as is Mauer and his bi-lateral leg weakness- not that catchers are hard on their legs or anything. It's too early for Rasmus, too, though he's certainly worth a pick in just a few rounds given how he's been playing. Beltre gives me another solid option at 3B, and should provide some more RBI. I would also trade him straight-up for another 3B from Mr. "I-didn't-come-to-the-draft-and-have-Longoria-and-Zimmerman," assuming he bothers to show up between now and October.
Round 6
Hunter Pence, Heyward, Phillips, Berkman, Hanson, McCann, Cain, Victor Martinez, Sandoval, Butler
This might have been my first mistake, though Pence was one of the four or five highest-rated players left. He never seems like an enticing option to me, but I wanted to stick with my strategy. Sandoval and Berkman are real head-scratchers, and this sort of thing makes me want to stick to private leagues. I continue to let other people take catchers, since they all rank so low using VUM. I'll let someone else take Cain with the 57th pick, though I was hoping to snag him with one of my next ones. I remain unimpressed with how everyone is drafting- no really stellar picks besides Braun at 8, Holliday at 41, and the no-brainer of Pujols at 2.
Round 7
Neftali Feliz, Rollins, Posey, Ethier, Bell, Rios, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aramis Ramirez, Carpenter, BJ Upton
Someone likes Cabrera's hot start a little too much. This is about where i expected closers to start going, even though I wouldn't do it. I like Ethier here as well. BJ Upton is once again my highest-rated player available, and I hope the power/speed is enough to take his .265 average.
Round 8
Jacoby Ellsbury, Utley, Street, Oswalt, Jimenez, Marmol, Michael Young, Bruce, Kendrick, Chacin.
As much as I like Chacin, and as much as he helped my points team last night with a shutout, I can't defend taking him here. Meanwhile, the run on closers continues, and I laugh and bide my time. Kendrick jumps up way too much; even if he keeps this up he's not worth the pick. I regret taking Ellsbury- I don't think he was one of my top 10 players left- but I thought I could wait on them and I was afraid I wasn't going to be able to wait on other stolen-base guys.
Round 9
Russell Martin, Victorino, Price, Carlos Santana, Pierre, Jeter, Wilson, Alexei Ramirez, Morneau, Chris Young
Between Upton and Young, I now have two versions of the same player and have probably used up any batting average cushion I have. Still, 20/20 is nice and I may be able to move some power later because of it. Russell Martin may end up a top-6 catcher after the Mauer injury, but come on. Just because he might be the best catcher left doesn't mean he has to go here. The Pierre pick illustrates why I took Ellsbury- I would rather have Pierre in round 10/11, but if I can't get him there I really have to reach for speed. As it turned out, that would have been the case.
Round 10
Martin Prado, Latos, Broxton, Chris Perez, Greinke, Bourn, Gallardo, Andrus, Quentin, Tabata
Another overvalued start in Tabata. I like him to be a top-50 OF, and maybe top-40. But a top-75 hitter is another issue entirely. Maybe next year, but not this year. Tabata is on two of my teams, and he may help me win them, but that's because I took him in the 20's. Prado is a bit of a panic move, but I wanted some average back, the flexibility (2B/3B/OF) helps, and I thought I could wait on the guys I had above him. I liked other 2B better, and with the earlier run (eight off the board already) I was sure I would get someone else later on. Less so with Prado.
Rounds 11/12
Logan Morrison, Castro, Zobrist, Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, Stanton, Valverde, Jaime Garcia, Hamels, Soria, Scherzer, Kendrys Morales, Harang, Matt Harrison, Liriano, Gio Gonzales, Rajai Davis, Polanco, Edwin Jackson, Beckham.
I jump for joy when Soria falls to round 11. Not bad. I start taking pitching, because a) I only have Lester up to now, and b) eventually, the rest of them are going to run out of Aaron Harangs and Matt Harrisons to take. I like Logan Morrison too, but not this early. There's adjusting after the season starts, and there's overreacting.
Rounds 13/14
Napoli, Nunez, Tim Hudson, Cordero, Kimbrel, Hart, Hunter, Masterson, Granderson, Marcum, Gardner, Wandy Rodriguez, Romero, Cahill, McGehee, Abreau, Paplebon, Huff, Gaby Sanchez, Stubbs.
I actually like Granderson, McGehee, Huff, and Stubbs here. But when there's enough reaching early on, others have to fall and I can only take so many of them. Like Shaun Marcum. If Marcum finishes worse than Masterson, Harrison, Harang, Jackson, and Chacin, I'll eat my hat. Gardner allows me to stop looking for steals, if he ever manages to get on base again. I don't really like him, but he bats leadoff for the Yankees and runs. Somehow, this always convinces me to take him on my category teams right around here.
Rounds 15/16
Alfonso Soriano, Narveson, Dickey, Billingsley, Roberts, Kelly Johnson, Walker, Betemit, Lilly, Aaron Hill, Kuroda, Francisco Rodriguez, Fowler, Beckett, Lind, Fuld, Markakis, Ogando, Fuentes.
Again with the early-season love. Narveson? Ogando? Fuld? The run on third-tier second basemen forces me to take Hill here- I was hoping for one of Roberts/Johnson/Walker with these picks.
Rounds 17/18/19
Gomes, Hanrahan, Ortiz, Shields, Freese, Nathan, Axford, Putz, Anderson, Jonathan Sanchez, Ian Desmond, Wells, Bloomquist, Carlos Lee, Alvarez, Gordon, Figgins, Adam Jones, Yuenel Escobar, John Danks, Reynolds, Drabek, Pagan, Moreland, Britton, Buchholz, Crisp, Burnett, Soto, Andrew Bailey
The run on relievers forced me to take the injured Bailey, but I waited on him after Hanrahan/Nathan/Axford/Putz all went. He'll have the job once he returns. I don't like Sanchez or Desmond too much, but Sanchez was the best pitcher available and Desmond the best SS, and I needed an SS. I start to wonder if this is a keeper league, with Drabek/Moreland/Britton all going here.
Rounds 20/21/22
Daniel Hudson, Furcal, Ike Davis, Francoeur, LaRoche, Arroyo, Franklin, Colby Lewis, Myers, Farnsworth, Montero, Lowe, Hellickson, Span, Wade Davis, Morrow, Guerrero, Avila, Stewart, Brandon Lyon, Erick Aybar, Nolasco, Theriot, Walden, Pena, Coghlan, Jordan Zimmerman, Sizemore, De La Rosa, Holland
Crap! I forgot about Walden. I should have taken him earlier. Still, I like Hudson, and Lyon seems to have righted himself and will give me cheap saves in the 21st round. I pick up Aybar in case Desmond justifies my lack of faith, I also only have one SS-eligible. At this point, I'm clearly waiting on a catcher.
Rounds 23/24/25
Rauch, Byrd, Swisher, Escobar, Zambrano, Hughes, Herrera, Storen, Bumgarner, Wieters, CJ Wilson, Derrek Lee, Gregg, Beltran, Sean Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Wood, Bay, Ruiz, Ervin Santana, Ben Francisco, Tomlin, Snider, Aviles, Dempster, Cuddyer, Posada, Headly, Scott, Contreras
There's no such thing as a bad pick this late, though Hughes comes close. I finally take Wieters in case some bastard decides he wants a second catcher in the late rounds, and it was either him or Kurt Suzuki. Wilson is a value pitcher this late, and Contreras will get me saves until Lidge comes back. I wanted to take a late-round flyer on Herrera somewhere in here, but got beaten to it. Someone didn't get the news that Posada died three years ago.
Overall, I'm not entirely pleased with this roster, but I did use my VUM rankings for the first 18-20 rounds, which was the point of it all. My roster looks like this:
C: Wieters
1B: Cabrera
2B: Prado
3B: Bautista
SS: Desmond
MI: Hill
CI: Adrian Gonzales
OF: Pence, BJ Upton, Ellsbury, Chris Young, Gardner
Util: Beltre
BE: Aybar
SP: Lester, Scherzer, Marcum, Kuroda, Sanchez, Daniel Hudson, CJ Wilson
RP: Soria, Lyon, Contreras
DL: Bailey
I should do OK. Somehow, ESPN has decided they know how I would have played the season to now and put me in 6th place, as if I really would have started 21 games to this point. That irks me, especially since it's put me in a retroactive ERA/WHIP hole. I have to trust that the rest of the season will pan out, since that's how I drafted. Game on.
No comments:
Post a Comment