Rotisserie leagues vary in the statistics they use, but the standard 5x5 format (which is how the rankings are created) use Runs, Batting Average, RBIs, Home Runs, and Stolen Bases for hitters and Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP for pitchers. You then get points based on the inverse rankings in a statistic (e.g. the team with the most RBIs gets 10 points, 2nd place gets 9 points, etc).
This scoring system bears only a tangential relationship to points leagues. Runs, RBIs, Home Runs, Stolen Bases, Wins, Saves, and Strikeouts all count in a points league, but they have different values (as opposed to equal weight in a roto league). To wit, in a roto league you need to balance accumulating home runs with accumulating stolen bases to maximize your standing in both categories. In a points league, home runs accrue points faster than stolen bases and have more value; in fact, you can theoretically win each matchup without ever having anyone on your team steal a base. In a roto league, you can't forfeit those points and expect to win. Moreover, batting average/ERA/WHIP bear only a tangential relationship to scoring in a points league. These are rate stats, and better rates mean better point totals in a points league. But in a points league, there may be a theoretical matchup in which two teams each get, say, 60 hits (all singles). Team A gets those 60 hits in 200 at-bats, team b gets 60 hits in 230 at-bats. In a roto league, team A had a much better week (because he has a higher batting average). In a points league, the two are equal. Better rate stats don't mean more points, they simply mean a greater likelihood of more points.
Because of these disconnects, certain players will be ranked higher or lower in a roto league than they would be in a points league. Since many team owners, even in points leagues, will be influenced by roto league rankings it is important to get a handle on where value is improperly assessed. Using ESPN's top-300 preseason rankings and my points league rankings (the explanation of which is detailed here), here are some notable undervalued/overvalued players.
Overvalued Players (better in roto than points)
1) Carlos Gonzales, Colorado OF (#9 ESPN, #18 Points): You're getting a good player here either way. The issue is that, early on, reaching for a player is disproportionately costly. So reaching nearly a full round for an outfielder is a really bad play this early in the draft.
2) David Wright, NYM 3B/Alex Rodriguez, NYY 3B (#11/23, #26/46): See above, only more so.
3) Josh Hamilton, Tex OF (#17, #62): The issue here seems to be playing time (ESPN projects about 550 plate appearances). In a roto league, players who miss time still do well for you in any rate categories and produce well while they're in the lineup in the counting categories. Moreover, since most roto leagues have daily lineups you can move him in and out of the lineup as he gets injured or takes a day off. In a points league, someone who doesn't come to the plate doesn't get you points, and the rates don't mean anything. The weekly lineups in a points league also means if he gets injured or rested you have a dead spot in the lineup. If the Rangers rest him frequently to try and keep him healthy, he's not getting enough plate appearances per week to justify one of your first five picks.
4) BJ Upton, TB OF (#65, #116): There are a whole slew of players in this category (Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, Colby Rasmus and Jimmy Rollins come to mind) who get plenty of home runs and steals with a moderate-to-low batting average and often (but not always) strikeouts. Because they are a plus in at least two (and often three) roto categories, they get ranked high for roto leagues. This is why you'll read the phrase "power/speed combo" in just about any draft article. But they don't get enough hits and/or too many strikeouts to justify a high ranking in points leagues, especially since steals are not on equal footing with home runs in a points league (as detailed here, home runs have a much higher correlation to points output than steals). Again, these are fine players to have but only if they are drafted appropriately.
5) Mark Reynolds, Bal 3B (#158, #313): Every year, someone thinks Mark Reynolds is worth the home runs. That statement could apply to fantasy baseball or actual major-league GMs. He never is; he strikes out too much to overcome everything else he may do. Strikeouts are costly. That doesn't matter as much in a 5x5 roto league (though I watched him nearly torpedo a team last year in a roto league that counted batter Ks), he is simply a player with a big positive in one category (home runs) and a big negative in one (batting average). But in a points league, someone who strikes out 200 times (as Reynolds does) starts off with negative value that has to be overcome. Assuming an 8-point average value for home runs (+1 for hit, +4 for home run, +1 run, +2 for 2 RBI), it would take 28 home runs to overcome his projected 222 strikeouts for this season. This is worth putting in italics: striking out 222 times requires 28 two-run home runs for Reynolds just to have non-negative value. If he's "only" going to hit 35 home runs, then he needs to get more non-home-run hits and plenty of walks (probably 80+) to add real positive value. That's just not going to happen. This goes for any high-power, high-strikeout player like Adam Dunn (#37, #92) or Carlos Pena (#149, #280); Reynolds just happens to be the most extreme example.
6) Any player who only contributes stolen bases: And I mean really only contributes stolen bases; we're talking no power, mediocre batting average, etc. Fantasy experts (and "experts," and amateurs) will tell you that cheap steals are available later in the draft. That's valuable for a roto league, but steals aren't worth enough in points leagues to justify drafting many of these players quite where they are ranked. A prime example is Brett Gardner (#103, #165), but Michael Bourn (#90, #152), Jacoby Ellsbury (#52, #89), Rajai Davis (#136, #201) and Elvis Andrus (#80, #93) qualify as well.
Undervalued Players (worth more in points)
1) Billy Butler, KC 1B/Nick Markakis, Bal OF (#88/139 ESPN, #41/33 points): Nick Markakis has to be the most extreme example of this phenomenon, but Billy Butler also qualifies: the player who just hits. Neither of these players hit many home runs or steal bases, they don't get many RBI, and maybe they score runs. The one thing they really do is hit for a high average. This makes them one-category (maybe two) players in roto leagues, but contained in that high average are plenty of doubles (and triples). These don't count in roto leagues, but add valuable extra points in a points league. Both Butler and Markakis are projected to hit above .300 (180+ hits) with 40 or so doubles but 20 or fewer home runs. In a roto league, this makes them just .300 hitters contributing in average. In points leagues, their non-home-run hits are projected to be worth 379 points (for Butler) and 371 points (for Markakis), which would be enough to place them in the top-250 overall. This doesn't even account for home runs, walks, steals, runs, or RBI. They are draftable even without these stats, so it doesn't matter that they don't get enough of them to justify a high pick in a roto league. Each additional tick in those categories just pushes them farther up the list of draftable players, in their cases enough to make them both worth one of your first five picks.
2) Matt Holliday, StL OF (#14, #5): Everyone loves Matt Holliday. He hits for average and hits for power, he'll steal a few bases, and he hits behind Albert Pujols. No one will let him slip past the second round. The point is that he's the top-rated outfielder, and you shouldn't let him slip out of the first round.
3) Joe Mauer, Min C/Victor Martinez, Det C (#30/#44, #12/#15): In roto leagues, the strategy is to wait on a catcher, simply seeing what's available at your draft spot. That's especially true if you don't get one of these two (or McCann/Posey later on). The idea is that, as scarce as catcher may be, you can get more valuable fantasy contributors than these early in the draft. The more valuable catchers aren't worth enough as overall contributors to take too high. But in a points league, that scarcity comes into play more. If a catcher contributes enough points overall then he's worth a high pick (Mauer is #23 for overall points and Martinez #30, more than Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Jose Reyes, or CC Sabathia). The scarcity of points at catcher then adds extra value to those already-good point totals, justifying a high pick.
4) Kurt Suzuki, Oak C (#208, #86): This case is essentially a combination of the reasons detailed in #1 and #3. He's projected to hit for an OK average (about .270) with a few home runs (14). But he's also projected to get 25 doubles, and OK run/RBI numbers that increase his value in a way that doesn't apply to roto leagues. That he does this from a scarce position increases that value immensely. Moreover, catcher falls off a cliff after Suzuki; the drop from him to the next-best catcher will cost about 55 points. Those 55 points at catcher are worth about 50 spots in the rankings.
5) Logan Morrison, Fla OF/Jose Tabata, Pit OF (#268/257, #78/113): These are two outfielders who only do one thing well (runs for Morrison, steals for Tabata), but don't do anything poorly. That makes them fairly unsexy late-round picks in roto leagues, since they're only taken if you specifically need their one good category. But they do just enough of everything else to generate plenty of points for a points league format.
6) Any under-discussed bat who projects to hit in one of the top-2 spots in the order: In points leagues, it's important to get players who come up to bat a lot. More plate appearances means more opportunities, and more opportunities means more points. Even if such a player doesn't do any one thing in outstanding fashion, if he hits at the top of the order he'll be solid enough often enough to contribute. Each spot down in the batting order costs a player somewhere on the order of 15-20 plate appearances projected over the course of a full season; that means the difference between batting 1st and batting 9th is about 150 plate appearances. That's fewer hits, fewer walks, runs, RBI, etc. Take two players with identical OBP, one batting first and one batting ninth. The league-average on-base percentage is .325, and so the player batting first will have 150*0.325 = 48.75, or about 49 more times on base. That means the minimum difference between the two players is 49 points, easily 10% of total points in the middle-to-late rounds. That doesn't take into account hits, extra base hits, runs, steals, etc., which will push the difference upward. Moreover, because a) this is fantasy baseball (where the top hitters are drafted), and b) these are players hitting high in the order (where OBP is valued), the OBP in question is likely greater than 0.325; you could well gain 80-100 points just by targeting a leadoff hitter over someone hitting in the bottom half of the lineup.
So, to recap: In a points league, overvalued players are injury/rest prone, strike out a lot, hit for power with low average (and likely strikeouts), power/speed combos, and one-category stolen base contributors. Undervalued players are hit for a high average, hit plenty of doubles, bat high in the order, and come from scarce positions.
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